Our medium term strategy holds good, for now

Here is a snapshot of our (open) results for the last week. I won’t usually show this detail as it can be misleading when we have a mix of recent and longer-term open trades. But as all our trades have similar creation dates, I felt it was okay to include.

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We have a medium-term strategy for these trades. Meaning from 6 to 12 weeks. Part of the plan is to open the trade early. If an early trade is not close enough to the extreme (a top or bottom), then we will manage the trade to achieve better entries. Being early is difficult for many as it is nearly always contrary to popular opinion. Also, being early can provide excellent gains only to see those gains retrace to a loss – which is emotionally challenging and the reason why many traders cash-in too soon.

By early trade, I should mention that we should also not be unreasonably early (it’s never that easy!). Patience is still key. For example, I think, a short in crude oil, currently, is too early. Crude has started to decrease in price this week from a recent up, but to take crude short now is premature. The picture is similar to long-term Treasury bonds that have a potential near-term short opportunity.

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