Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and USD/CAD this week

Copper has had an intense week and finished high. Silver, in particular, has spiked up. Gold also increased but ended the week more or less even. Crude oil has finished the week reasonably strong. USD/CAD is still some way from turning up and will need careful management.

Here they are in slightly more detail:

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My premise on Copper has changed. Copper, I feel, is some way from a big turn down. I would consider a small increase in price before a drop to our low two weeks previously – and then a possible climb. We will look for the best price to exit our copper trade.

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Silver has had a dramatic couple of weeks. Two strong weekly moves up taking silver from the one-year trend line to the, higher, 10-year trend line; indeed, the price of silver bounced precisely off this line – marked with a circle. Always challenging to short when everyone else is long. But that is what we did. Of importance, and supporting our case, the COT for silver shows commercials at an 8-year record with the number of shorts compared to longs. Hold onto your hat!

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Gold has not been as dramatic as silver. Up in price all week, gold finished low for the week supporting our prediction of gold progressing further down in price over the coming weeks.

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I’m a supporter of a drop in price again in crude oil, but it may take its time. Price was possibly getting to somewhere marked by the red circle. For now, we remain on the sidelines.

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USD/CAD price mirrors that of crude oil. Therefore, a trade on both is double the risk and significant consideration. As with crude oil short, it is early days to consider USD/CAD long. A turn somewhere in the green box, however, is a good probability. But risk-reward is excellent when we catch a trade early. Probability is the other major player in the trader’s equation; moreover, proper management of early trades is essential.

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