Category: Slow Trader Hedge Fund

Slow Trader Diary – week 34

Here are the ups and downs of this week:

Pace PLC lose £294. AUD/JPY lose £770. Silver gain £363. USD/JPY gain £115. EUR/GBP gain £523. Broker cost was a gain of £18 (the gain was interest earned as we were up with USD/JPY for several days).

Net for the week was a lose of £45.

The (unexpected) last minute strength of JPY took away a potential two grand gain for this week. That is how it stood financially. In ‘how well we traded’ terms I was pleased with this week. We called the market correctly in everything but a late dip against JPY. That is the nature of the business.

The main area for improvement is the risk/reward amounts. We didn’t manage better than 1 to 1. To make money consistently, this needs to improve to an average of 1 to 3. Or, as we term it, 3R. That is: wins need to be, on average, three times bigger than the losses.

Take AUD/JPY above for example. Our stop was 110 points (often called pips) away. That means I felt that the trade had the possibility of going up at least 330 pips. Three times the risk. Or, 3R. If I didn’t, I more than likely would not have taken the trade. Its a necessary filter to keep the risk reward balanced in our favour.

The important reason for this is simple. At 3R we can lose some 60% of the time and still take a profit. Okay, it will make it hard work, but a profit non the less. We aim to have the statistic the other way round and win 60% of the time. Importantly, however, if we are not achieving an average win of 3R – we lose longer term.

So keep an eye out in future for the ‘R’ which I will post after each actual win/loss. If you see 1R consistently on the wins you will know (nice as it is to have a win) that we are not cracking it. However, an average of 3R is plain sailing.

From this weeks charts:

We know from the COT (commitment of traders) report that gold and silver were ready to buy. We had to be careful however of the long term trend against both of these commodities. Therefore we waited until, in this instance, silver went up and retraced to provide a buy opportunity in the direction of the COT, but also with a recent Up (a recent trend up).

Very nicely done. I came out – correctly – at only 1R because the overall trend was still too strong on Silver. We may get another buy opportunity this coming week.

Gold, on the other hand, did not retrace and I was left watching it go up – even though I knew it was going up. There are strategies to jump onto the train and, influenced possibly by Silvers retracement and thinking gold will do the same, I missed one. Still watching.

There are clear buy signals above. And signals to jump on board. Hindsight remains wonderful!

Sometimes we can just plainly do better. I’m pleased with that EURGBP buy above. It was an excellent call, if I say so myself, however, I came out way too early. At only 1R. You get the picture. Why did I come out at 1R when the market for EURGBP was going so strong? that, as we have already mentioned, is the area for improvement.

I had a buy order in place with EURUSD and missed a great buy by only a few pips, the chart then zoomed up. But I’m happy with that as the trade (although missed marginally) was correct.

USDJPY above, was this sell instinct? I bought USDJPY on a retrace, from a recent Up, on the one hour chart (chart above is the daily chart to show the week). I was looking for a 3R with this one and we sat at 1R all week. I noticed the move down (unexpected strengthening of JPY) and sold with a small profit of £115 (all week the profit had been £600).

The interesting thing about trading is the necessity to detach yourself from profit. Personally (although I’m background aware, of course, of the profit) I never look at ‘up or down’ in terms of money (I don’t even have the money amount showing on my broker page) but only in terms of ‘pips’. If we’re emotionally attached to money amounts – up and down – we cannot trade emotionally detached or to the best of our abilities, consistently, over the longer period.

Worth a mention about S&P below and FTSE.

For those in traditional funds they would have taken a battering this week. The FTSE is a similar picture. I realise that those in managed funds, for the long term, then this is only a 20% blip downwards. However, I would like to take the 20% back up, without having suffered the down bit.

August 22, 2015
JPY does not play well with the COT

Some good opportunities in the foreign exchange pairings (FX) this week.

I am more and more concentrating on the FX market rather than the stocks and shares market. Particularly the major currencies. And my real angle is FX that is in association with the USD.

For instance, GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD. Gold and silver, priced against USD, and WTI (light crude oil) as they are all on the COT watch-list.

This is because, with this selection, I can take advantage of the information from the COT report, providing the ‘C’ of my C.U.P. abbreviation (see ‘how I trade’).

Is the COT that important? Anything that helps us trade with an advantage is important to my mind; there are enough variables in the market not to take notice of any obvious areas of influence.

Silver gave a buy signal (retracement to the 21 day moving average) that we caught this week. Don’t chase this however, this signal has gone for the time being – possibly.

This buy was supported by the COT, but be careful of the trend:

You may have noted that JPY was not included in my primary watch-list. However, we do trade JPY against other major currencies, but without the support of the COT. We are currently in USDJPY and AUDJPY:

In both these trades we bought with the ‘C’ being the big trend only, and not the COT.

The COT, I find, does not play well with JPY.

August 19, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 33

With USDJPY we are several hundred pounds up this week, and still in (but as I’ve mentioned before we cannot count these until they’re cashed). Small down of £100 with NZDUSD. Small up of £35 with DTE Energy Co. And, IG (our broker) costs for the week of £3.28.

As an aside, how this affects you (the fund investor) personally will be shown as we move into overall profit. Until then it is pointless. Your initial investment into the fund is guaranteed. Okay, it is sensible to allow a few years for a fund to grow but, like me, with patience, we are all wanting a massive gain.

This has been an exciting week for me in terms of being comfortable with goals and strategies. I am gradually completing my ‘how I trade’ page which will soon give you the strategies that I use. These strategies will seem simple to the novice trader, but execution takes time, dedication and effort to do properly and consistently.

I’ve coined the abbreviation CrUP, meaning: Conditional, recent Up and Price. Each part is equally important. Missing any one and we are at a greater risk of getting the trade wrong. Each aspect of CrUP will be covered in detail soon under ‘how I trade’.

One aspect, however, under Price, that cannot be learned is the method by which we buy or short. We have three choices: on market, on stop or on limit. Again, these will be covered in more detail in my ‘how I trade’ section, but in the mean time I will show you an example from this week. Firstly, the reason it cannot be taught is because it needs instinct, or gut feel.

Above is GBPUSD, which I narrowly missed. You may recall that we caught the last swing up of GBPUSD the previous week. Looking at a chart in hindsight makes it seem obvious. To get the trade right, however, takes understanding (instinct) of ‘how to buy’, i.e. on market, on stop or on limit. My buy was on-limit, at the exact lower pin position (the arrow marked ‘buy point’ shows this). However, the spread is a couple of pips (these are points up or down measured by the right hand axis, the spread is the brokers profit and if we don’t allow for it then we don’t get in). In my case I had allowed for the spread, so it was my buy position, my instinct, that was out). Having missed this, the following day provided an equally, arguably better, buy opportunity with a retrace down from the previous days close.

I appreciate that those not familiar with this form of trading then the explanation is double dutch. However, it is a diary for me as much as for you so you will have to allow me this one.

I have a couple of other examples from this week where, similarly, the buy was either too ambitious (in the case of GBPUSD) or not ambitious enough – hence the £100 loss in NZDUSD.

But as I said at the start, noticing this outcome and being able to gain from the experience is what counts for the future. And the future is this week coming with great opportunities looming.

I mentioned a watchful eye on gold. Both gold and silver have climbed against the long term trend as indicated by the COT report. I’m waiting for a retrace of the price before buying. Also, NZDUSD could be in for a move upwards. Sharpen the instinct!

August 15, 2015
Is it a good time to buy coffee?

For the longer term traders, here’s a consideration.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc. Formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. a specialty coffee and coffeemaker company founded in 1981 and headquartered in the U.S.

The coffee maker has had a share price drop since late 2014. Analysts say it is due to the popularity of the coffee maker’s product. However, the price drop coincides well with the drop in coffee value, as shown on the COT report.

Green Mountain has good fundamentals. I believe that the share price drop is associated more closely with the commodity price of coffee rather than anything that Green Mountain have, or have not, done.

The question is “is this a good time to buy”? It could be absolutely perfect as a buy point, or it could be too early.

Trying to find the bottom of a market is not fun. Mostly we get stopped out trying to do this. The recent trend is most certainly against us and, although the COT shows a possible bottom to the market, the COT could turn higher and force the price of coffee (and therefore possibly Green Mountain share price) even lower – as it did in 2013.

The answer: let us wait until the price trends upwards, and with the COT on coffee showing the same, we could have a long-term winner.

I will blog when I get a buy signal for Green Mountain (GMCR).

August 11, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 32

No trades cashed-in this week.

We also had no costs against us.

This week we entered Pace PLC and DTE Energy Co, both on a December quarterly trade.

We are mostly short term swing traders: so are our trades taken as DFB (Daily Fund Bets) or quarterly futures trades?

The DFB gives us a tight spread (the difference between the buy and the sell price) but has a daily interest cost. A quarterly futures bet (near, mid or far quarter) has a larger spread the more distant the quarter but carries no interest charge. So which one to take – a DFB or a future quarterly – depends on time. In other words, it depends on the duration we think we will hold the trade.

Currency pairs (FX) can only be traded through a DFB. With shares and stocks, however, we have the option of a DFB, or a quarterly futures trade; I will look to take a mid quarterly trade where possible.

Here is our trade with DTE Energy Co:

DTE Energy is conventional electricity. Our conditional is simply a consistent ten years of positive earnings per share (EPS) percentage growth. As for recent trend, the stock is trending up which we can see from higher highs and higher lows. The 21 day moving average supports this. Our price, for us in this example, as there are many personal ways of determining price, is the confluence of a support line (a 61.8% fibonacci retracement line to be exact) and the pin bar the day before. We took the trade on limit, which meant the price did come down to a more favourable price before we bought automatically. We have set a target limit at 90.67. That gives us a risk reward of nearly 4 times.

Here is our trade with Pace PLC:

Pace PLC is telecommunications equipment. This trade has gone against us slightly and I’m not happy with my decision to take this trade. Our conditional, again, is ten years of positive EPS percentage growth. However, it is the trend that is our weak link. Over the last 18 months, except for a large gap up, the trend is down. This is made more so with the drop in price yesterday. A closer look at the recent trend confirms this. Our price, a confluence of support level and price action is fine but is secondary to the trend. Also, our price action, being the pin, in hindsight, is black where a white pin would have been preferable. I will tighten our stop to minimise any loss and if we get a rebound I will sell early at, or close to, break-even price.

No buy or short signals in FX this week. FX requires a regular watch so as not to miss the opportunities. By regular I mean a once daily detailed review of daily bars. This can be done, because of the timing of the FX New York close daily bars, at 9pm or 10pm, depending on UK/US time difference; or, as is my preference, early, before 7am, UK time. Then a look every 4 hours where possible, to match the 4-hour bar close times. However, I find that as we get close to a buy or short opportunity the best way is to set an automatic (ambitious) entry.

Particularly looking this coming week for a buy opportunity in GBP/USD.

August 8, 2015
Trading on news events – good luck on that one.

We have touched on this term that we have called ‘conditional’ and its importance as a starting point to give us the best chance of making profitable trades.

Conditional, it can be argued, is what moves markets. It is the foundation upon which we determine which way the trade will go. It beats guessing.

We all know by now that I favour the COT (commitment of traders) report for my conditional; for information to help the probability of a trade being successful. However, a simple long term or weekly trend is also a good conditional. The conditional is something that gives us an advantage.

For many (the crowd) the conditional is news events and/or the trading suggestions found in popular trading or investing publications. Good luck on that one. Most trade decisions made by small speculators, the crowd, everyday people like you and me, get it wrong. A contrarian trader, someone who takes the opposite trade to the crowd – if that were the only conditional method available – would be significantly more successful than the crowd.

The ‘get it wrong’ bit is no better for large speculators. The hedge and fund managers. Indeed, their record is little better than the crowd. The commercials, however, are correct most of the time. Commercials, depending on which categories we are talking about, are the producers or end users of the commodity or futures market. The big money.

Speaking metaphorically, commercials tell us which way the trade winds might blow. They don’t tell us how hard it will blow. And we are not sure from the commercials whether it will blow next week or next month. But the commercials do tell us that the blow will happen sometime and in what direction it will favour.

Good enough. All we have to do is be patient and match the commercials, our conditional, with the specific recent trend and buy or short using our chosen price system.

Here is the past 3-year Gold net position of the Commercials. The October 2012 short position was clearly shown. Notice where we are now, the green arrow. However, its early to buy gold as the recent trend needs to establish. But you probably get the general idea behind it all. The importance of conditional before anything else. Its something that gives us that needed advantage when we trade.

August 4, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 31

Here are our cashed-in trades for week 31: Healthcare Partners Inc + £89, GBP/USD + £687

IG is our broker, costs for the week were – £25.17

Lets take a look at GBP/USD.

Conditional: this is a graphed COT (commitment of traders) report giving us a buy condition.

This graph represents several months so gives us the condition only, important as that is. From left to right, the first arrow is against the trend. Therefore we would not take that as a positive buy opportunity. However, the second arrow, and second buy indication, is good as it is with the recent trend. The buy condition should remain if the blue line on the chart continues to descend to a new low.

The COT report is completed for the previous week on the following Tuesday and is published on Friday. It is therefore about two weeks old by the time we get it. However, it is like the oil tanker analogy where you move the rudder but it takes several miles to turn. Often that is the case with the COT. Even though it is old information it gives us a solid hint at the conditional.

Once we have the conditional we need a matching recent trend. I’ll talk more on the (elusive) trend in follow up blogs.

After trend we concentrate on price – in other words a buy signal. Here is our buy signal for GBP/USD this week. The first graph is in daily bars and the second is the same trade from bottom to top but in 4-hour bars. The second chart gives us a different view as to the dynamic of the trade.

Moving on. You may have noticed the S&P. Here it is today:

Knowing what the S&P is doing is not a trading conditional for individual stocks (or shares in the case of the FTSE). That would be too broad a statement. Interestingly, the movement however of the S&P was more or less mirrored by the stocks on my short list. Even being confident of the future movement of my selected stocks I still missed most of them. ‘How is this possible, B’? I hear you say.

This is an example of what happened.

This is Boeing, We notice by the date that the bottom (blue arrow) coincides with the predicted bottom of the S&P. This pin, at a 50% retrace, is a great buy signal. (Again, we will cover price in more detail in future blogs for those that are interested).

If we choose to: buy on market, that is buy now at current price – or buy on stop, that is buy at a higher future price – or buy on limit, that is wait and buy at a lower price – is a judgment call. And one, on this occasion, I got wrong. You will notice that the bounce was so hard that after the pin the next days opening price gapped up. Only a buy on market would have worked. I went for buy on limit and missed it. “C’est la vie.”

This was the same this week for four trades that I set.

For the coming week we are keeping a sharp eye on gold. The commercials (that is the COT report) are warming up nicely to a buy signal. Beware of the trend however and remember, as well as recent trend, we also need price or more accurately price action. But more on this later.

August 1, 2015
Being conditional helps us win the pub quiz
With the possible exception of day trading, all trades or investments follow a simple process:
- Conditional
- Trend
- Price
This applies no matter what my preferred method.

Conditional is something that gives us a clue as to the probability of something happening in a defined way. In other words, its like taking a sneaky peak at an answer sheet before a pub quiz.

Conditional can be any number of things. For example, our conditional could be as simple as knowing how popular a product is, or how well somewhere is managed, or we have a particular take on how to calculate a future value of a company, or we might have a particular talent in astrology!

Whatever it is, we need something conditional to give us an advantage. Without it, with regards to the big picture, we’re guessing.

I use different conditional guides for different items. For shares and stocks over the shorter term its consistent EPS (earnings per share) percentage growth over the past 10 years. Sounds complicated but is easy to obtain with most trading software.

For longer term buys its future value, what Benjamin Graham coined Margin of Safety (MOS). I couple the MOS with consistency of growth. If you’ve seen my early blogs this is difficult to do well. However, you would be daft to trade (invest) long term without it – or something that gives us a similarly advantageous condition. Maybe Nick, the author of the calculations I use, can provide this information on-line in the future.

Also, a current favourite of mine in the medium term time frame for foreign exchange pairings (FX) and commodities is the COT (commitment of traders) report. A simple chart but one, I have learnt ,through lots of trial and error, that takes many consistent weeks and months to understand properly and use well.

Ask yourself (or your fund manager) what ‘conditional’ you (fund manager) use. Are you happy with it. Does it work. Or are we guessing?
July 27, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 30

Remember from the last diary that we had missed the swing up (hesitancy over Greece) and that we would not take further trades until the swing was right.

You will also recall that we showed the S&P 500, and broadly where it would drop. Here is the S&P today. As predicted.

We are not sure as yet how far the S&P will drop. However, we can now look for excellent buy opportunities in the S&P and FTSE companies.

It is, of course, not the case that when an index falls (the S&P above is an index) that each company share associated with the index will fall. But in this case it was a good decision to wait.

I will not show you points up or down of those shares that we are currently trading, as we have done previously, because until we cash out of those trades the points are relatively meaningless. I will therefore only show you cashed in shares during the reported week with profit/loss on those shares. (When I say shares I also refer to stocks and FX).

To do otherwise, reminds me of the comment “the operation went brilliantly, up until the moment the patient died”. The same is true of trading. How well the trade is going – or how many points up or down – counts for little until a trade is concluded (sold).

July 26, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 29

An early diary entry as I’m going away for a few days to where there is no internet and probably no mobile signal.

Lets take a look at short term swings.

We mentioned Alexion Pharmaceuticals in the last blog. The green arrow represents the buy point. This is because the share price has pulled back, in this case to a 50% retrace of a previous move, and provided a buy signal – the pin pointing down is a clear buy signal.

The red arrow represents my sell point. The horizontal lines are drawn using the fibonacci retracement tool provided with most software and were drawn weeks before. This does not mean we can look into the future with share price but if certain things happen it does give us an advantage in determining probability.

The catch is if you miss the move – which I did being too concerned about Greece – then there are signals that allow you to get into the swing once it has started. But another concern is the index, in this case the S&P 500 index.

The index is of course an average price of all the stocks within the index. Some stocks being much larger than others means that the price change to individual stocks is not well defined but its a handy guide. If the index goes up, by definition, many of the stocks go up – and vice versa.

There is a good probability that the S&P index will bounce down when price reaches somewhere within the red box. Not long therefore. So to take a buy now from one of our stocks would be the wrong time for a short term swing trader. Or any trader. Better to be patient and wait for the index to swing back down again and provide a more profitable entry point.

I don’t use the index as a buy/sell signal, the individual stocks do that for us. Price swings are a factor in all charts to some extent: be it stocks, shares, FX or commodities. Reading those swings is the art.

July 15, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 28

On the share market there have been a few short term moves up – Alexion Pharmaceuticals, AON and Prudential were our best opportunities. However, we remained on the side lines. In hind sight these should not have been missed. Greek issue makes me doubt the signals.

With regard to the foreign exchange (FX) pairings we had no signals to take meaningful advantage of: EUR and GBP gained some ground yesterday in anticipation of the possible Greek news this weekend.

Light crude oil gave us a small gain of £364. However, the move wasn’t strong enough for us to stay in the trade.

We bought at the green and sold at the red.

Greece continues this weekend with key decisions. There are many good articles about the current Greek situation and the possible ramifications. News, and the subsequent emotions about the news, is what moves the FX in the short term. So to that end, as we cannot be reasonably sure which way it is going to go, we are out of the markets again this weekend.

July 11, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 27

Our fund, in total, is down 17%. Or £4,842.67 out of the investment of £30,000.

Those used to a ‘normal’ fund will consider this drastic as it takes an age in a ‘normal’ fund to come back 17%. However, I’m pleased with our recent come back to this level – always more difficult to bring a fund back up – but once we’re over the hump…

With good money management (not risking too much too quickly) we can bring this back in a few weeks with good trading.

However, remember that original invested amounts are guaranteed and can be taken back at any time, in any amount, without influence to the fund or fellow investors.

At some point soon I know, based on our lessons learnt, that we will soar.

Here are our trade results this week:

Long interest paid was £10.87 – a reflection of our limited trades due to the Greek issues and subsequent volatility in the markets (shares, stocks and FX). Bonds, and commodities were not adversely affected but I have not had a buy signal for those this week.

WPP PLC, – £194 loss.

CLS Holdings PLC, – £471 loss.

Pace PLC, – £145 loss.

FX GBP/JPY, + £384 gain.

Moneysupermarket.com, + £108 gain.

ITV PLC, + £93 gain.

Monster Beverage Corp, +£691 gain.

Elementis PLC, + £160 gain.

Total losses this week including long interest: £821

Total gains this week: £1,436

Not exciting. But considering many (probably all of you) with ‘normal’ long term managed funds would have had a loss this week.

The Greek issue continues this weekend with the referendum.

We are out of the market this weekend. We are holding no trades. This is because the markets can ‘gap’ – either up or down – depending on the Greek outcome. A gap is a jump from close of market before the weekend to open of market after the weekend. Those without a guaranteed stop risk a significant hit to their funds.

Next weeks subsequent volatility could suit us. Looking forward to it!

B

July 4, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – Week 26

One step forward, followed by one step back. Or was it the other way round?

When trading (or managing) a leveraged fund there is no hiding. Unlike ‘normal’ funds where poor investments can be ignored under the (incorrect) pretence that the share price will eventually return.

Often it doesn’t. And the loss is rarely admitted to – how many pension funds still hold Lloyds Bank since before 2008? The theory being that the offending share investment is not a loss until it is sold at a loss.

Peter Lynch – arguably the most successful fund manager – in his books, tells us of investments he still holds today – from decades ago – that will never recover to previous values.

A leveraged fund on the other hand, is brutal. If you go down a fraction you sell. You take your losses early is the mantra. Your failure is known right away. And you will have failures. Its part and parcel of the game.

Here are my failures (and win) this week: failure plural, win singular.

Firstly, we paid £24.79 this week in long interest. This is a charge IG make for carrying DFB (Daily Fund Bets) over one day. Day traders – those that don’t carry trades past one day – would have nothing to pay.

FX AUD/USD – £480 loss. Not my finest hour.

Halliburton – £558 loss.

We bought at the green arrow. Perfect, a 50% retrace and good price action. However, I (foolishly and unknowingly at the time) broke my rule of going against the trend. It was only clear to me after the share price went lower and stopped out that we were, indeed, trading against the recent trend. We had a lower high. Okay, it could be argued that the lower high was slightly hidden until the next move…? But still not a good trade.

Under Armour Inc. + £667.

This had everything we required. Trend, retrace and price action. The target price was set at purchase. This was a 3 to 1 trade. Meaning that we made 3 times more than our potential loss.

Should I have set a higher target? Maybe. Only time will tell. The target was my call at the time. And I still stand by it. We are short term traders after all. If a new high is made another buy opportunity will always present itself.

Trades we are currently in:

CLS Holdings. – 51.7 points down. We had sold this share at break even and bought again at a lower price. Not a great strategy to chase a share price down looking for a buy point. However, the chart and the fundamentals are good.

ITV PLC. + 12.3 points up.

Our target is a new high with ITV. Fundamentals are good too.

Moneysupermarket.com + 15.9 points up.

Our target is to simply match the previous high with this one. The big drop down, shown on the chart, leaves me a little nervous to take this share to a new high. Also, we have moved our (non guarantee) stop up. For a share such as this – one that has large moves – a guaranteed stop would (in hindsight) have been a good option.

Monster Beverage Corp. + 1137 points up. Don’t be confused by the amount of points. As US stocks are often much more expensive than UK shares we have large points movements in our US trades. However, in the tradition of good money management, we have a trade amount that matches the risk. For Monster that, in this case, is 0.7 pence per point. (In the case of Moneysupermarket, for example, it is £20 per point).

Pace. – 9.1 points down. This is a funny share chart and one that I will look to exit.

WPP. + 2 points. WPP is now trending down, so I will watch very carefully when the market opens on Monday to sell this share.

That is it for this week. As usual, I will post the fund position overall (which is done monthly) in the new month, probably next week. Have a great weekend.

B

June 27, 2015
How goes it? Week 25

For simplification, I’ve combined Slow Trader and Ferrari into one fund which we will refer to as Slow Trader Fund.

Our strategy in Slow Trader is to short term trade (using, primarily, daily close bars rather than intra day bars) shares in the FTSE 350, stocks in the S&P 500 and major foreign exchange (FX) currency pairings.

Arm Holdings. We came out at a little over break even. I moved our stop as I was not happy with the possible trend change of this share price. The share price did move below our buy point but has subsequently moved up again. We are out for the time being.

Halliburton Co. We set this share stop also to a little over break even. This took us out without lose and the share price has continued to drop. A good move on our part.

BT Group. Moving the stop too early is usually not a good thing. I feel that the stop should only be moved if something happens to make you change your mind about the share or the share price has climbed sufficiently to put you into a different price bracket. I got this wrong with BT. I moved the stop and got stopped out for £17 profit but the share turned and continued up!

Ashtead Group. – £311 lose. On reflection, not a good share to take. A ranging share price, rather than my strategy of taking trending prices, this share dropped well below my entry price – but has subsequently turned up again.

CLS Holdings. – £325 lose. I made fundamental mistakes with this one. Incorrect retracement level without price action. If I had waited (patience is the virtue of a good trader) and measured the retrace correctly this could have been a winner.

I bought at the red arrow, the green arrow was of course the correct buy point.

Card Factory. – £311 lose. This is a relatively new share. Only 5 years of fundamental information, I prefer 10 years.

We were in credit – having bought at the lower green arrow – but a sharp drop took us out. You will notice that I sell a share for a lose (or more accurately, I’m stopped out if a share price drops below what I think is acceptable).

FX AUD/USD. + £394. This is the first time you have been introduced to FX. This is on an intra day 4-hour chart so you can see the move.

We bought at the red arrow, we sold at the green arrow and we bought again (and we are still in) at the blue arrow. Easy! Okay, sometimes it goes ideally like this.

We also had interest charges (mostly for carrying shares over the weekend) of – £32.

We are currently in:

CLS Holdings. We bought again at the green arrow on the CLS chart above. Although the price has moved up we are still -3.7 points as this is the spread. The spread is how the broker (in our case IG) make their money. It is the same as when you go on holiday and change your sterling for euros, you have a buy and a sell rate.

ITV PLC. + 2.6 points.

Money supermarket. + 12.1 points.

Monster Beverage. + 568 points.

Underarmour. + 464 points.

WPP PLC. – 9 points.

FX AUS/USD. – 20.9 points.

Finally, anyone wishing to short term trade for themselves I am trialling a notification system to help you. You will get my information direct to your smart phone so you will need an account that you can action through your phone. More later.

B

June 20, 2015
How goes it? week 24

This week most of our shares came up nicely. But it is early days in this swing and we have some way to go (possibly this coming week) to reach our sell targets.

Our only share to stop out was DaVita Healthcare Partners for a loss of £216. This is still an excellent possibility if I get another buy signal. On this occasion it dropped below my previous buy signal and I took our loss early.

We are currently in the money in all our other shares:

….of note: In the weekly reports I show the points up and down, rather than how much we are up or down monetarily. I find this helps me stay separate from the money emotion of it all. I will trade an amount on each share depending on an acceptable risk level. This is governed by several things but mainly the value of the share. For example BT Group may have £30 per point risked whereas Under Armour has 0.9 pence per point risked…..

Arm Holding up 7.8 points. This share has provided a lower high and I will move my stop up close or will come out soon for a small profit.

BT Group up 11.7 points. This share has climbed nicely over the last few days bouncing off a 50% retracement line. We are holding.

Halliburton up 63 points. In the oil equipment sector. This share came down 70 points on Friday. However, we bought at a good price and the possible up side is well worth risking our present 63 points. I will move our stop however so that at worst we will break even.

ITV PLC up 6.4 points. We bought this at a good price and the last 3 days have seen a reasonable jump. A hold.

Moneysupermarket.com up 5.4 points. This took a large drop a week or so ago. It provided a good buy signal for us, and the share moved up nicely during the end of last week. A hold for us.

Monster Beverage up 35 points. This came down close to our stop. We were lucky not to have a loss on Monster. Price moved up on Friday but we are not out of the woods yet. A nervous hold.

Under Armour Inc. up 275 points. This has been level for a few weeks. It jumped up nicely a week ago then stayed level again. Stop moved to break even. We will hold.

Foreign Exchange currency pairs – I’m still struggling to master the FX market and I’m down on those trades. However, we have made a clear adjustment to our strategy and potential benefits are well worth the perseverance.

I will include FX in coming weekly reports so you will see the (larger than shares) ups and downs of the market.

B

June 13, 2015