Is it a good time to buy coffee?

For the longer term traders, here’s a consideration.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc. Formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. a specialty coffee and coffeemaker company founded in 1981 and headquartered in the U.S.

The coffee maker has had a share price drop since late 2014. Analysts say it is due to the popularity of the coffee maker’s product. However, the price drop coincides well with the drop in coffee value, as shown on the COT report.

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Green Mountain has good fundamentals. I believe that the share price drop is associated more closely with the commodity price of coffee rather than anything that Green Mountain have, or have not, done.

The question is “is this a good time to buy”? It could be absolutely perfect as a buy point, or it could be too early.

Trying to find the bottom of a market is not fun. Mostly we get stopped out trying to do this. The recent trend is most certainly against us and, although the COT shows a possible bottom to the market, the COT could turn higher and force the price of coffee (and therefore possibly Green Mountain share price) even lower – as it did in 2013.

The answer: let us wait until the price trends upwards, and with the COT on coffee showing the same, we could have a long-term winner.

I will blog when I get a buy signal for Green Mountain (GMCR).

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