Tag: WTI

Weekly Diary – Slow Trader Fund

A week of lessons and some missed trades.

A few areas that I’ve traded this week have been disappointing. Not by judging the trade correctly, far from it, that has been good, but by being stopped out too soon. A novice trading error possibly. It’s a great lesson to take forward.

Here are the trades in question:

Silver. We had a good ‘short’ signal for silver. Both on the chart and the COT. The COT was a little early, so I set what I considered to be a good size stop. A stop is the exit point, the point at which we get out and accept our loss if all goes wrong. Notice on the chart below how the price climbed to almost the exact position of my stop. A stop twice this distance with a reduced trade amount was the answer. We may have a second chance if price retraces as I’ve indicated with the blue arrow.

Notice the COT below for silver. It is at a 3-year low shown by the blue line. Once this turns up, and remember that the COT is big picture only, this will support a short for silver. Gold has also come down with a similar, although not quite so pronounced, COT picture.

EUR USD. The currency pairing of EUR USD is one that I trade day-to-day. Notice how volatile this currency has been of late. I have provided the 1-hour chart to illustrate this by showing several recent spikes up.

The spikes may not look like much, but to a day trader (trading an intraday chart) they are a challenge. Again a significant stop distance (about 40 pips) is necessary. However, this makes for difficulty achieving a traders equation of 2:1 on a 40% probability trade, which is the minimum requirement for most swing trades.

Crude Oil. A wide trading range has developed for WTI. The Price of WTI moved down to coincide with the top of the first daily breakout. An expected phenomenon . The (buy) signal, although bearish on the daily chart, was good in hindsight; however, I will look for a second entry opportunity to go long if price retraces back to the lower trend line and again provides a good buy signal. After that, I’d expect price to climb to the top of the channel that I’ve drawn with a 40% or 60% probability of ascending or descending respectively.

We remain in Ashtead Group PLC with a target shown by the blue arrow below.

Finally, A reminder that Slow Trader values will be provided every first Saturday of the month.

October 30, 2015
Slow Trader Diary

Slow Trader fund up this week to + 5%.

To report the fund each week encourages trades to be cashed too early to show a profit. That is silly. Therefore, I propose that the fund be reported, whenever possible, the first Saturday of each month.

The diary of trades taken, good and bad, and those trades that are on the radar, will be discussed each week as usual.

These are considerations coming up:

Crude oil (WTI)

We have a buy signal on the daily chart shown above. A 60% probability of WTI climbing to $50. After that the price may descend into a trading range, or may continue climbing for a measured move up to about $55. Whether we hold or not at the $50 line will depend on price action and momentum when, and if, we get there. Also, the COT is in our favour for this trade.

Gold

Gold has provided a measured move up, in agreement with the COT. After a breakout on 2nd October, gold is now in a short term bull trend (a bull channel on the daily chart). It has reached a resistance level, however, and the likelihood is that price will fall back slightly (XAU USD) to $1150. Possibly forming a trading range just above its 5-year low. If this happens, we will look for a buy opportunity if price action and the COT agree.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has broken above the resistance level that we discussed last week. The ratio has now swapped to 60% probability to the price climbing. Indeed, a new high could result in the coming weeks.

This positiveness in the S&P puts a good light on stocks within the index. We will look for opportunities to buy ‘fundamentally’ good stocks as and when they provide price action buy opportunities.

October 18, 2015
Slow Trader Diary – week 35

We are open with gold.

Broker charges for the week were a credit of £9.48.

Here’s our gold trade:

Our target is in the region of 1212. This is in-line with the COT and if the present Up continues it will nicely form a recent Up (or recent trend upwards). However, as we have seen this week, the market remains volatile.

Of the other trades we considered earlier in the week:

Silver moved down lower than expected, did not provide price at a level I could determine. So no trade.

NZDUSD remains a possibility to go up briefly. But it is presently stable below its low of recent weeks. It may move up soon. However, this is an advanced trade as it is against the big trend and is without a recent Up.

GBPUSD, having been quite stable through the initial turmoil of the week, just blew down. It may turn at the 15350 region or continue down to as low as 15190. I’m less convinced of this trade. It has, for now, become choppy which always makes for a difficult read. The COT is still a buy but is weakening, we do not have a recent trend, although the mid trend remains up. Only excellent (daily) price will convince me to take GBPUSD at the moment.

EURUSD is approaching our predicted bounce point. However, the COT is about to turn and we are all aware of the volatility presently associated with the EUR. My own thought is that the bounce could happen but it will be short lived. Price may turn down again before the previous high thus establishing a recent Down (or recent down trend).

WTI, or crude oil, bounced off its lower stop this week. This move is gently supported by the COT, nothing dramatic for the time being. Too early to decide, but it is on the watch radar now.

Finally, the S&P and FTSE have moved up slightly, but the roller coaster might not be over yet.

As I’m away for a few weeks the next diary will be 26th September.

August 29, 2015