Not a good idea to match experts

Each of my faults, the ones that I’m aware, seem to balance themselves out.

For example, my type of dyslexia (probably detectable in many of my spellings) gave me reading problems as a child (I’ve overcompensated as most would now consider me a voracious reader) but was balanced by my skills in mathematics.

Later in my career as a squadron commander my propensity to change my mind in a flash and go with a different tack was undoubtedly frustrating for my management team.

That same trait is, as it turns out because I wasn’t aware that this oddity of mine could possibly be put to advantage, gives me a traders edge.

That is because in trading, and in particular my chosen method of short-term trading, is based on probability. Where (according to Taleb) probability is about the belief in an alternative outcome, it is not about the odds.

Beliefs (Taleb goes on to say) are said to be path dependent if the sequence of ideas is such that the first one dominates. We may be programmed to build a loyalty to ideas in which we have invested time – a good salesman, for example, will take advantage of this principle.

A great trader on the other hand will change their belief (probability assessment) in an instance. That is why it is not a good idea to attempt to take the same trade of an expert: we know they are long, they said convincingly that they are going long, we follow and take the trade long – the expert went short.

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