Long-term, what does the S&P chart suggest

The S&P 500 is, I think, a reasonable guide for us when considering our long-term FTSE 350 top ten.

The chart we are considering is the monthly chart, and this snip covers the last few years. The month just gone finished with what is known, technically, as a doji; this is indecision or a trading range bar.

The chart has been steady, having now completed a measured move up from the last pullback at about 1800. Also, the chart is currently at a significant number, being 2400.

The significant number, completion of a measured move and finishing the month as a dojiĀ all point to a pullback at this stage. Albeit a small (in monthly chart terms) pull back; what the technical analyst would call an anticipated bear flag.

Any small pullback will, in all likelihood, trigger on-limit purchases and the chart pushed back up to 2400 or higher. However, if the pullback is stronger than anticipated (the possible government shutdown crisis and the congressional fight over the continuing resolution that expires on April 28 is a factor), then we could see the chart coming back down to the 1800 level. As we’re on the monthly chart, such a scenario would take one to two years.

The bottom line is that the chart is at a measured high with a doji and significant news on the way. I would hold for a time and see where this leads. A pullback to 1800 would provide a good buy point – but, of course, in maintaining we may miss (and possibly the more probable) further move up.

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