Weekly Diary – Slow Trader Fund

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Ashtead Group PLC (AHT) was a good buy for us, so far. The purchase was at the bottom of a trading range, as we can see above. A 60% probability of climbing to, or near, the top of the range indicated by the target arrow. Of course, there is a 40% probability that the price will break higher from the trading range top. However, we have taken this for a ‘scalp’ rather than a ‘swing’. A swing would be where we would allow the price to retrace before going (hopefully) up higher. A scalp, on the other hand, is a movement from one extreme of a range to another without a retrace.

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The picture for crude oil, WTI, has changed slightly from my suggestion last week. The COT, shown above, only works with some degree of sureness when it is in harmony with the trend. The little turn-up that we can see at the very end of the blue chart line above represents a downturn in the price. That small turn up represents about two weeks of price movement. I like to keep the COT on a 3-year chart as I find this best for perspective. COT, we may recall, is big picture stuff only. And, again, is only to be trusted when in unison with the trend. Which, in this case, it is not.

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Above, is the daily chart for crude oil. My thought, is a move upwards soon, as indicated by the blue arrow, to provide a broad trading range. The price tried to turn upwards last week but failed. For another turn up we will need some price action confirmation supported by the COT.

Other activities include an introduction of swing day trades on the FX market in EUR USD. In day trading I find it benefits significantly to concentrate on one market. I scalp and swing in my fond on day trades. Slow Trader, for the time being, will be swings only in day trading respects. Swings tend to be lower probability trades, about 40%, but have more significant reward potential. They are also less intense to scalps. We will see how this progresses for the fund and, of course, I will keep you posted.

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