Slow Trader

Tag: MOS

  • Buffett, an investing dinosaur?

    I appreciate that we don’t have much time to read a blog, often on a mobile device and while we’re busy concentrating on something else. Meanings are easily misinterpreted. Moreover, true longer term ‘value’ investing is not a popular investment method. We want gratification earlier.

    Someone close to me this weekend considered me wrong with the longer term investing methodology, suggesting that: (1) the market has changed and a five years investment model is long enough, (2) Buffett is an investing dinosaur and (3) proceeded to tell me why Blackberry really failed.

    My initial explanation (blog) must have been poor, so I hope I can provide more clarification.

    The numbers that we provided to back up the top ten shares can be confusing. We are looking for companies that ideally have ten years of reports showing no debt, a great consistency in growth and are available at the bargain price of fifty pence on the pound.

    The latter refers to the margin of safety (MOS) that Graham coined. That is the same as being able to go to a BMW garage and purchase a £40,000 car for £20,000. A good deal. That is what the MOS is telling us. What it is not telling us is how good the car is.

    All the many books available on how to calculate the MOS can be obtained and studied closely and it would still be very difficult (and I’m not kidding here) to find a solution for the MOS. That is why what Nick provided us with is a gift.

    Because we don’t know how to work out the MOS, many times we are buying shares at £2 or £3 on the pound. That is like going back to that BMW garage and buying that same car, but now for £80,000 or even £120,000. That sounds like a silly thing to do, but we do it when we buy shares!

    I was wrong to provide a suggested timeframe for longer term shares. It seems that some have latched onto that guidance I gave – when really it’s an individual interpretation of what is longer. My suggestion allowed for a purchase at any point in the market cycle. But I don’t know, and nor does the buyer probably, at what point in a market cycle they are at time of purchase.

    As for Buffett being an investing dinosaur, the methodology comes from Graham, and he was the generation before Buffett. But in any case, it’s nothing to do with either of them really. Buying something for fifty cents on the dollar is as good a market trading philosophy today as it was in Babylonian times.

    As for Blackberry, this was given as an example only of what to watch out for. Kodak is another. It doesn’t matter here about these companies. I was merely trying to say that such companies can show up on Nick’s list but are about to crash. That is why Nick has provided the 1st, 2nd and 3rd periods of measured consistency to help us spot such companies. And for those who think it’s easy to see such companies coming, sure it is after the fact, but most of the brightest analysts in the world didn’t at the time.

    Market cycle is worth a further mention here. I’m not a doom and gloom thinking guy, quite the opposite actually. Benjamin Graham gave up at one point because he couldn’t find companies that provided value, a MOS. This was prior to the great depression. From 350 companies we would expect to find about 10% with a qualifying MOS. On the last run 3% qualified, and some of those are questionable as they don’t have the 10 years of reports.

    I don’t recall any of my chart analysis providing a ‘buy me now signal’ either. Moreover, once the daily press has front page news telling us it’s a great time to buy – well, you know what I think about that.

    With 5-minute bar charts I deal with a major trend reversal a few times a week. With such a chart it would not be possible without the X/Y values showing to tell the difference between this and, say, the 2008 market crash on a weekly chart. So the short-term trader gets a lot of experience with market reversals.

    More often than not, a beginner trader will trade a reversal too early (this is the case for both short and long-term trading/investing). Only to be stopped out at a higher price – in the case of a bull reversal – and watch from the sidelines as the market eventually drops. On a 5-minute chart such a reversal can take hours, on a weekly or monthly chart it is years – or at the very least many months.

    As a final thought, value investing, or the interpretation of fundamentals, is not generally considered a suitable methodology for mid-term investing. There are alternatives. For example: taking advantage of IPOs, share splits or runaway news, events, fads and fashions. I particularly like the interpretation of the COT report with commodities for mid-term investment.

    I hope this helps.

  • More on the long-term investment model

    My recent blog(s) were in regard to long-term investing. By long-term I’m thinking 15 to 30 years. Nick has given us, from each companies past ten years of annual reports, where available, his estimation of a company’s future value (MOS) and measure of consistency as a percentage of growth.

    From the FTSE 350 companies, Nick found that only ten companies met his criteria. Of these top ten companies, meant for long-term ISA or SIPP investment, we need to understand the principles of the company and be satisfied that a company has a product, method or brand that will be around after the next ten years.

    Nick has provided us with an old 3rd, mid 3rd and latest 3rd consistency to help us determine this. For example, Blackberry would have scored highly all the way to its end on this system; however, the clue would have been in Blackberry’s old, mid and latest consistency which would have shown a big down slope.

    Nick will refresh these calculations every few months. Primarily to capture the most recent annual report – three of which, on our current calculation, were from the end of 2015. To help, or possibly confuse, I’ve provided a brief chart synopsis of each of the top ten companies. I will continue to do this at the release of an updated calculation from Nick.

    New readers to this blog please note that my full-time business is short-term trading. Most of my blogs therefore will be focused on the short-term stuff. My detailed ‘how I trade’ page is only associated with short-term trading.

    Personally, I’m only in favour of short-term and the very long-term trading/investing model. I’m not in favour of the mid-term trading timeframe which constitutes the majority of the trading/investing world – pension funds and the like. This is a timeframe from the near term out to 15 years. I also feel that many pay too much for the services of providing mid-term investing. ‘Tony Robbins, Money Master the Game’ shows how every 1% in charges results in providing the investing company 20% of the final fund. Possibly a reason why a finance company made our top ten!

    If we are to invest in the mid-term, Robbins advocates a cash, share, commodity and bond mix. There are a few investment companies that provide such a fund – an independent financial advisor could help. Such funds are not exciting when the share market is going up rapidly; but such a fund usually provides a profit  – even when the share market heads south.

  • Being conditional helps us win the pub quiz

    With the possible exception of day trading, all trades or investments follow a simple process:

    • Conditional
    • Trend
    • Price

    This applies no matter what my preferred method.

    Conditional is something that gives us a clue as to the probability of something happening in a defined way. In other words, its like taking a sneaky peak at an answer sheet before a pub quiz.

    Conditional can be any number of things. For example, our conditional could be as simple as knowing how popular a product is, or how well somewhere is managed, or we have a particular take on how to calculate a future value of a company, or we might have a particular talent in astrology!

    Whatever it is, we need something conditional to give us an advantage. Without it, with regards to the big picture, we’re guessing.

    I use different conditional guides for different items. For shares and stocks over the shorter term its consistent EPS (earnings per share) percentage growth over the past 10 years. Sounds complicated but is easy to obtain with most trading software.

    For longer term buys its future value, what Benjamin Graham coined Margin of Safety (MOS). I couple the MOS with consistency of growth.  If you’ve seen my early blogs this is difficult to do well. However, you would be daft to trade (invest) long term without it – or something that gives us a similarly advantageous condition. Maybe Nick, the author of the calculations I use, can provide this information on-line in the future.

    Also, a current favourite of mine in the medium term time frame for foreign exchange pairings (FX) and commodities is the COT (commitment of traders) report. A simple chart but one, I have learnt ,through lots of trial and error, that takes many consistent weeks and months to understand properly and use well.

    Ask yourself (or your fund manager) what ‘conditional’ you (fund manager) use. Are you happy with it. Does it work. Or are we guessing?