Slow Trader Diary – Week 26

One step forward, followed by one step back. Or was it the other way round?

When trading (or managing) a leveraged fund there is no hiding. Unlike ‘normal’ funds where poor investments ignored under the (incorrect) pretence that the share price will eventually return.

Often it doesn’t. And the loss is rarely admitted to – how many pension funds still hold Lloyds Bank since before 2008? The theory being that the offending share investment is not a loss until sold at a loss.

Peter Lynch – arguably the most successful fund manager – in his books, tells us of investments he still holds today – from decades ago – that will never recover to previous values.

A leveraged fund, on the other hand, is brutal. If you go down a fraction, you sell. You take your losses early is the mantra. Your failure is known right away. And you will have losses. Its part and parcel of the game.

Here are my failures (and win) this week: failure plural, win singular.

Firstly, we paid £24.79 this week in long-interest. A charge IG make for carrying DFB (Daily Fund Bets) over one day. Day traders – those that don’t carry trades past one day – would have nothing to pay.

FX AUD/USD – £480 loss. Not my finest hour.

Halliburton – £558 loss.

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We bought at the green arrow. Perfect, a 50% retrace and good price action. However, I (foolishly and unknowingly at the time) broke my rule of going against the trend. It was only clear to me after the share price went lower and stopped out that we were, indeed, trading against the recent trend. We had a lower high; okay, hidden until the next move, but still not a good trade.

Under Armour Inc. + £667.

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This had everything we required. Trend, retrace and price action. Target price set at purchase providing a 3 to 1 trade.

Should I have set a higher target? Maybe. Only time will tell. The target was my call at the time. And I still stand by it. We are short-term traders after all.

Trades we are currently in:

CLS Holdings. – 51.7 points down. We had sold this share at break even and bought again at a lower price. Not a great strategy to chase a share price down looking for a buy point. However, the chart and the fundamentals are sound.

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ITV PLC. + 12.3 points up.

Snip20150627_13Our target is a new high with ITV. Fundamentals are good too.

Moneysupermarket.com + 15.9 points up.

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The significant drop down, shown on the chart, leaves me a little nervous to take this share to a new high. Also, we have moved our (non-guarantee) stop up. For a stock such as this – one that has significant moves – a guaranteed stop would (in hindsight) have been a good option.

Monster Beverage Corp. + 1137 points up. Don’t be confused by the number of points. As US stocks are often much more expensive than UK shares, we have ample points movements in our US trades. However, in the tradition of proper money management, we have a trade amount that matches the risk. For Monster that, in this case, is 0.7 pence per point. (In the case of Moneysupermarket, for example, it is £20 per point).

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Pace. – 9.1 points down. An odd share chart and one that I will look to exit.

WPP. + 2 points. WPP is now trending down, so I will observe when the market opens on Monday to sell this share.

That is it for this week. As usual, I will post the fund position overall (Done monthly) in the new month, probably next week. Have a great weekend.

How goes it? week 24

This week most of our shares came up nicely. But it is early days in this swing, and we have some way to go (possibly this coming week) to reach our sell targets.

Our only share to stop out was DaVita Healthcare Partners for a loss of £216. An excellent possibility if I get another buy signal. On this occasion, it dropped below my previous buy signal, and I took our loss early.

We are currently in the money in all our other shares:

Of note: In the weekly reports I show the points up and down, rather than how much we are up or down monetarily. I find this helps me stay separate from the money emotion of it all. I will trade an amount for each share depending on an acceptable risk level. Governed by several things but mainly the value of the stock. For example, BT Group may have £30 per point risked whereas Under Armour has 0.9 pence per point risked…..

Arm Holding up 7.8 points. This share has provided a lower high and I will move my stop up close or will come out soon for a small profit.

BT Group up 11.7 points. This share has climbed nicely over the last few days bouncing off a 50% retracement line. We are holding.

Halliburton up 63 points. In the oil equipment sector. This share came down 70 points on Friday. However, we bought at a reasonable price, and the possible upside is well worth risking our present 63 points. I will move our stop however so that at worst we will break even.

ITV PLC up 6.4 points. We bought this at a reasonable price and the last three days have seen a fair jump. A hold.

Moneysupermarket.com up 5.4 points. A significant drop a week or so ago. It provided a good buy signal for us, and the share moved up nicely during the end of last week. A hold for us.

Monster Beverage up 35 points and close to our stop. We were lucky not to have a loss on Monster. Price moved up on Friday, but we are not out of the woods yet. A nervous hold.

Under Armour Inc. up 275 points. Level for a few weeks. It jumped up nicely a week ago then stayed level again. Stop moved to break even. We will hold.

Foreign Exchange currency pairs  – I’m still struggling to master the FX market and I’m down on those trades. However, we have made a clear adjustment to our strategy and potential benefits are well worth the perseverance.

I will include FX in coming weekly reports so you will see the (more significant than shares) ups and downs of the market.