Tag: AUDUSD

A chart mix

My mother missed her step coming off a pavement and fell and broke her hip. She is doing remarkably well and I look forward next week to getting back to my trading, I’m a couple of weeks behind.

Trading GBP/JPY on the 5 minute charts works well for me. I like the size of this market and on many days GBP/JPY can be quite defined. Anyone familiar with EUR/USD or even GBP/USD will find GBP/JPY quite lively.

Many that trade major pairings will not take the spread into consideration, a mistake I think, but not a big one. Particularly if they trade from 15 minute charts or higher. GBP/JPY however, on a lower time frame, teaches us the necessity to consider the spread. To do otherwise, and be consistently profitable, is more difficult – I think.

To make the best of both possibilities I’m happy with my results of concurrently trading GBP/JPY on the 5 minutes chart (as the priority chart) with a watch on USD/CAD, Gold and EUR/USD – each of which are on the 15 minute chart. I tried many possibilities but these choices give me good opportunity, diversity, liquidity and a spread value that I prefer.

For example, GBP/JPY does not work with GBP/USD as both react almost in unison. Moreover, oil is often a mirror image of USD/CAD: so to trade one would have too much influence on the other. I do find that Gold and EUR/USD often have similar movements and on such days I consider a swap to AUD/USD or (and I’m in the early stages of this) the US 500 SPTRD.

Other FX pairings, and particularly exotics, are not considerations for me. Primarily due to spread but also we are dealing with randomness and probability, and we don’t need big uncertainty too. As already mentioned, I’ve looked carefully at the US 500 SPTRD and this is a possibility on the 15 minute chart with good liquidity once the US market has opened.

To trade the fund on the 4-hour charts is not possible (for me anyway) with already four intraday charts to manage. If my results are what I know they can be (and so far so good) over the next few weeks I will consider how to join the slow trader fund within this – more intensive – methodology.

May 26, 2017
The short the medium and the long

What is new for 2017?

Firstly, for my day trading from 5-minute charts I’ve chosen:

EUR/USD AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/USD and Gold

I trade these most days (half day Friday) from 8am to 6pm. With an hour or two off here and there for good behaviour. I will report day trading ideas from time to time through this weekly blog.

Secondly, for the ‘slow Trader fund’ from daily charts I’ve chosen:

The UK top 200 shares

This was after reflection over the holiday period. Trading currency pairings on a higher term chart, when probably taking the opposite view on a lower term chart, is difficult. Therefore, we needed a home for the fund and the UK top 200 shares fits the bill. Why not US stocks? There is a change in tax on US stocks and also we consider that later this year a large move in the dollar is likely. There is enough going on trying to pick share direction – we don’t need to have to factor in major currency changes too.

I’m excited about this move of the fund. We will trade both long and short based on ‘price action’ technical analysis. It will provide stability and the increase that we’re looking for. I review all qualifying shares every trading day morning. Entries are based on daily charts, however, best entries may be found on lower time frame charts. Ideally we are looking for entries to last a few days out to a maximum of a few weeks.

I’ve chosen a selection of the top 200 shares that have what I’m looking for in terms of price, liquidity and stability. I will blog the complete list later and keep members updated of results through this blog.

Finally, we also want to provide information for the best UK pension ever. That is long-term (many years) investment via a UK share ISA.

This is a reintroduction to Slow Trader of fundamental analysis. Nick has kindly agreed to provide regular information from his spreadsheet on which UK shares are great performers and available at the right price. Nick will be reviewing the FTSE 350 (that is the FTSE 100 and 250 combined) and I will keep you updated from this list. I won’t provide a description of companies, as I’ve done before, but simply the essentials from the spreadsheet. These are for long only consideration.

This is all about the fundamentals and the incredible analysis tool that Nick has created. However, James and I will add our long-term (weekly and monthly chart) technical slant. More of this soon.

January 3, 2017
JPY does not play well with the COT

Some good opportunities in the foreign exchange pairings (FX) this week.

I am more and more concentrating on the FX market rather than the stocks and shares market. Particularly the major currencies. And my real angle is FX that is in association with the USD.

For instance, GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD. Gold and silver, priced against USD, and WTI (light crude oil) as they are all on the COT watch-list.

This is because, with this selection, I can take advantage of the information from the COT report, providing the ‘C’ of my C.U.P. abbreviation (see ‘how I trade’).

Is the COT that important? Anything that helps us trade with an advantage is important to my mind; there are enough variables in the market not to take notice of any obvious areas of influence.

Silver gave a buy signal (retracement to the 21 day moving average) that we caught this week. Don’t chase this however, this signal has gone for the time being – possibly.

This buy was supported by the COT, but be careful of the trend:

You may have noted that JPY was not included in my primary watch-list. However, we do trade JPY against other major currencies, but without the support of the COT. We are currently in USDJPY and AUDJPY:

In both these trades we bought with the ‘C’ being the big trend only, and not the COT.

The COT, I find, does not play well with JPY.

August 19, 2015