Exponential risk, does it have legs?

I took a few days out and walked forty miles in the Lake District. After the walks, I read The Antidote by Oliver Burkeman and reread Atomic Habits by James Clear. Trading is improved by almost every good idea I read about; these books are no exception.

I’ve been pleased with the results of trading nine currency pairings. If done correctly, more markets can result in fewer, more selective entries. As I observe, an appropriate structure and setup are available in most sessions.

The currency market continues to have good price movement. And I’m continually scanning for high-probability trades. Oddly my ‘C’ trades seem to present themselves before the more lucrative deals. If I jump on a weaker deal, it tends to draw me as they can often be more challenging managerially. It is only later that I notice the better trades have sailed past undetected.

At the same time, I do not want to be hesitant when a higher grade trade presents itself, wondering if it is a ‘C’ or better. That comes with a lot of practice and consideration. Writing up in great detail each significant trade and honestly drawing out all the lessons helps. I’m starting to video my trade sessions too. I can then play the good ones repeatedly to reinforce what I did right.

It sounds like an awful lot of trouble. But the more repetitions I do, the easier it is to recognise when the play is so good. I also record repeat wins to note categories and pairings. It’s all about building a database of those setups and charts and what they look like when they work well.

I now have a note card of my ‘C’, ‘B’, ‘A’ and ‘A+’ trades and how much I want to risk. The risk I now use is exponential as the bet grade improves, and I gain confidence in judging those differences. An approach used by Lance Breitstein and one, I realise, that moves away from the usual convention. But as long as I work up slowly to the process, I think it has enormous potential.