Some skype trade room chat from this week (EUR/USD)

I’ve backtested and will continue to regularly backtest the last 10,000 units (about 4-weeks worth on the 5-minute chart). I’m not only working hard at ‘Bob‘ type entries but at my exit criteria. 20 pip is my goal, but I will adjust for market size, reversals, resistance and (something that Bob does not mention too much) price action. For example, an extended bar in a particular context (see below) will see me exit; I will also exit with engulfing bars too, but context always rules.

An example from my back testing.

The last hour makes for an interesting analysis. I took bar 4 below as a signal bar. However, it was much too weak against the pullback of bars 1, 2 and 3. Bar 5, my entry bar, touched a full pip below bar 4 – my entry. Bar 6 closed above the long-standing resistance, now making it support and a possible entry long on the following bar. Bar 7 provided a floor (ceiling) test. All a bit weak against the previous bear bars, but if not a long a good reason not to be short?

Signs to watch for that indicate a turn in the market.

My understanding had me orientated for a trade short for some odd reason only known to me. (see below)
Short at 1 and out at 2!
Then long (thank goodness) at the 11:40 bar.
I held thinking it would do the 20 pips. But It’s been consistent recently at 10-pips. (Refering to how much the market has been moving)

The importance of staying neutral as price action builds.

Good timing on the long! (Still on the chart above)

Out soon after the 12:05 reached a high and pulled back.

It did pull back, looked strong on the way up. 10-pips in this market is a good call. Reasonable resistance from yesterday at that level.

That’s the move of the day

…so far

On the last take, I entered on the first full pip above the 11:35 bar. The bar had closed above my pattern. However, the momentum came in at the ‘double’ pressure created a pip above the double top of the 10:20 bar. It’s not apparent looking at the bars now.

Below is an excellent entry set-up except for no signal bar.

No signal bar, let it go.

I was all ready to enter short at a full pip below the signal bar (pb horizontal) when the price shot down to the ema. It left me behind. The pullback, on the bar after the planned entry bar, was very slightly short of my desired entry position.

A still screen shot does not provide the speed of price movement. It’s often more difficult live.

I gave this one a small run for its money (See below). It was held to see if it would break the top, already reasonably high in this bull push.

A trade already high in a trend is an uncertain trade.

(Below) Bar 1 as an entry bar was against the trend. However, the prior legs were a lower low and a slightly lower high. I took this trade but came out after 3-pips as it ‘felt’ too early to be making a short. Bar 2 had no signal bar. The pullback to the horizontal pattern break was acceptable, and I would probably have entered at the pattern with bar 3. But a bunch of news was due for release on the following bar.

A good trend does not always provide good entries.

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